Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that Poland’s Law and Justice party has split, with Mateusz Morawiecki forming Development Plus and polling above the Sejm threshold. While this could, in theory, reduce the risk of a dominant PiS government and lower the zloty’s political risk premium, competing scenarios of a fragmented, harder-to-manage right leave the overall Polish Zloty (PLN) impact uncertain for now.

PiS split complicates risk pricing

"Poland’s opposition politics took a notable turn last week after Law and Justice (PiS) split, with ex-PM Mateusz Morawiecki and more than 30 MPs leaving the party after refusing to sign loyalty declarations demanded by PiS chief Jaroslaw Kaczynski."

"The first polling after the break-up suggests that Morawiecki’s party would take 7.5% in an election, clearing the 5% threshold for Sejm representation. KO remains in front at 28.5%, while rump PiS drops to 15.9%. More strikingly, the far-right Konfederacja and the even farther-right Korona are polling at 13.5% and 12.3% respectively. "

"On this arithmetic, KO and the Left would take 207 seats, while PiS, Konfederacja and Korona would take 222, leaving Morawiecki’s projected 31 seats as potentially decisive."

"The immediate temptation is to call this zloty-positive because PiS is fragmenting. If the right-wing movement were to disintegrate in Poland, this would reduce the probability of a clean PiS return to full-spectrum power at the 2027 election, and would therefore lower the structural political risk premium on the zloty."

"But such a conclusion would be premature. There are several other angles. A split could allow PiS to compete harder for right-wing voters while Morawiecki captures more moderate centre-right voters, with an unspoken plan for the two to re-combine after the election. Alternatively, a fragmented right could make coalition-building messier, not easier, especially if radical parties become indispensable."

"For now, the implication for the zloty is unclear: the development warrants watching for sure, but it is not yet a clean PLN-positive development"

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)