• Bitcoin is consolidating above the $64,000 support level amid capped upside and US-Iran strikes.
• Ethereum holds between the 50-day EMA support and the 200-day EMA resistance.
• XRP rises albeit gradually for a third consecutive day despite a weak technical structure.

The crypto market is trading in neutral-to-slightly bullish conditions on Thursday, with Bitcoin (BTC) holding above $64,000 while its immediate upside remains capped. Ethereum (ETH) hovers above the $1,900 short-term support level while Ripple (XRP) struggles to gain momentum ahead of a potential nail $1.10 breakout.

US-Iran tensions weigh on risk assets

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated in the latter half of the week, as the United States (US) conducted a "heavy wave of strikes" targeting key locations in southern Iran, including Bandar Abbas, Kish, and Qeshm Island.

Meanwhile, reports indicate a US-owned vessel caught fire in a suspected drone attack at an Egyptian port, although local authorities have yet to confirm the cause.

Crude Oil prices remain well supported, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading above $82 per barrel.

Crypto market sentiment is embedded in the Fear territory at 28 on Thursday, down marginally from 29 the day before, as reflected in the Fear & Greed Index. If appetite for risk assets remains largely constrained, price recovery could lag heading into August.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday in the 3.50%-3.75% range, broadly meeting market expectations. However, three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  members dissented, advocating for a 25-basis-point (bps) increase.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh adopted a hawkish tone in the post-meeting press conference, underlining the central bank's direction toward “only one target and it is 2%” inflation. Warsh emphasized that the Fed under his leadership “will deliver the 2% target.”

By prioritizing underlying economic trends over short-term data, maintaining elevated nominal and real yields, and engaging in an active policy debate, the Fed signals its willingness to keep financial conditions restrictive for an extended period.

Technical analysis: Bitcoin holds key support

Bitcoin trades at $64,259, keeping a bearish near-term bias as it holds below the key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Price is capped first by the 50-day EMA at $64,922, with the 100-day EMA at $67,521 and the 200-day EMA at $73,060 reinforcing a broader topside supply zone.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in negative territory on the daily chart, hinting at persistent downside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50 suggests neutral momentum and a lack of strong directional conviction.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the SuperTrend line near $61,034, which acts as the first structural floor should selling extend. As long as BTC trades beneath the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, rallies are likely to be constrained by these overhead levels, and a clear recovery above $64,922 would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way toward $67,521 and then $73,060.

"Bitcoin's stability comes despite geopolitical factors that are unlikely to subside anytime soon, which fuel strict monetary policy outlooks around the world and increase constraints on liquidity flows into cryptocurrencies," Simon-Peter Massabni, XS.com Business Development Head, said in a comment.

Altcoins technical outlook: Ethereum and XRP sustain neutral-to-bullish tone

Ethereum trades above $1,900, holding a neutral-to-slightly bullish tone as it sits above the 50-day EMA at roughly $1,848 and the SuperTrend support near $1,741, yet still capped by the 100-day EMA at about $1,932 and the distant 200-day EMA around $2,166.

The RSI hovers near 57 on the daily chart, hinting at mild bullish momentum, while the MACD has slipped marginally into negative territory with a soft bearish cross, suggesting upside attempts may face headwinds while the pair consolidates between these key moving averages.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 100-day EMA around $1,933, and a sustained break above this level would open the way toward the broader bearish cap from the 200-day EMA near $2,166. On the downside, initial support is seen around the current price area and the 50-day EMA at about $1,848, with a deeper pullback likely finding structural demand at the SuperTrend line near $1,741, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader recovery structure.

XRP, on the other hand, remains capped below the Bollinger Bands middle layer $1.10 and well under the 50-day EMA near $1.13, keeping the near-term bias tilted to the downside. The spot price is hovering closer to the lower half of the Bollinger envelope, with the lower band offering a cushion around $1.05.
Momentum indicators are softening as the RSI slips below the midline near 45 and the MACD turns marginally negative, together suggesting fading upside pressure and risk of further consolidation or pullback.

Immediate resistance aligns first with the Bollinger midline at $1.10, followed by the 50-day EMA around $1.13 and the upper Bollinger Band layer near $1.14. Beyond that, the 100-day EMA at $1.21 and the 200-day EMA near $1.42 form broader bearish caps that would need to be reclaimed to improve the medium-term structure.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the lower Bollinger band around $1.05, where a decisive break would open the door to a deeper correction toward prior psychological and horizontal level $1.00, while holding above this floor would keep the current range-bound, corrective phase in place.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)