Commerzbank’s Moses Lim and Dr. Henry Hao note that Singapore’s June non-oil domestic exports (NODX) growth moderated to 20.7% year-on-year but remained strong, with electronics exports surging on AI-related semiconductor demand. They stress that overall export prospects look resilient, as continued AI infrastructure investment should offset chemical-sector disruptions, while clearer global trade policies and easing Middle East tensions could support a recovery in non-electronics exports. USD/SGD trades near 1.2910.

AI demand supports NODX and SGD

"In H1 2026, NODX grew 18.6%, well above the government's full-year forecast of 3-5%, suggesting external demand remains resilient despite ongoing geopolitical and trade-related uncertainties."

"This suggests the global electronics upcycle remains intact, supported by sustained capex commitments from hyperscalers and cloud service providers."

"In addition, tariff-related headwinds could weigh on non-electronic exports."

"Nevertheless, the tariff impact may prove less severe than feared, given that most economies are expected to face a baseline 10% tariff on shipments to the US."

"Overall, the export outlook remains resilient as continued AI infrastructure investment could support electronic shipments and offset supply chain disruptions in the chemical sector."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)