Japanese Yen: Macro backdrop favors recovery against US Dollar - BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad anticipates the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will leave its policy rate at 1.00% after June’s hike, with inflation still below target and markets pricing only gradual tightening.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad anticipates the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will leave its policy rate at 1.00% after June’s hike, with inflation still below target and markets pricing only gradual tightening. While USD/JPY has surged on higher Oil prices, Haddad notes Japan’s macro backdrop would otherwise favor a firmer Japanese Yen (JPY) over the coming weeks.

BoJ seen on hold as USD/JPY elevated

"The BoJ is widely expected to keep the policy rate at 1.00% after delivering a well-telegraphed 25bps hike in June. Inflation is running below the bank’s 2% target."

"The swaps curve price in a 25bps rate hike by year-end and a total of 60bps of tightening to between 1.50% and 1.75% over the next twelve months. That would still leave the policy rate near the middle of the BoJ’s estimated neutral range (1.10%-2.50%) while the economy operates above potential."

"USD/JPY surged to near a 40-year high last week underpinned by firmer crude oil prices. Absent the renewed oil shock, Japan’s macro backdrop would favor a firmer JPY."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

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KUOTASI LANGSUNG

Nama / Simbol
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GBPUSD
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EURUSD
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USDJPY
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