United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note after USD/JPY hit a 40‑year high above 163, now expect intraday consolidation between 162.80 and 163.30 as recent price action offers few fresh clues. On a one‑to‑three‑week horizon, they keep a positive view, looking for an extension to 163.50 while 162.40 strong support holds. Medium‑term, the uptrend can persist above the 21‑day EMA at 161.00.

Dollar-Yen consolidates near multi-decade highs

"24-HOUR VIEW: After USD soared to a high of 163.23 two days ago, we highlighted yesterday that “the risk for today remains on the upside, but it is too early to determine whether USD can reach 163.50.” We noted that “support is at 163.00, followed by 162.75.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected, as USD dipped briefly to 162.77 before recovering to close largely unchanged at 163.13 (-0.02%). We are not able to derive much from the price action. Today, USD could trade between 162.80 and 163.30."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our USD view to positive yesterday (22 Jul, spot at 163.15), indicating that it “is likely to rise further to 163.50.” We will continue to hold the same view as long as USD holds above 162.40 (no change in ‘strong support’ level)."

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