EUR/USD Price Forecast: Testing range top at 1.1485 amid stronger momentum
Oleh Guillermo Alcala
Diperbarui: 16 Jul 2026
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The Euro (EUR) edges higher on Thursday, with the US Dollar (USD) on its back foot, as recent US inflation figures triggered a significant repricing of near-term rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
- EUR/USD crawls higher and reaches the top of the monthly range at the 1.1485 area.
- The US Dollar retreats after PPI data further dampened hopes of immediate Fed rate hikes.
- In Europe, ECB officials keep calling for higher interest rates to tackle inflationary pressures.
The Euro (EUR) edges higher on Thursday, with the US Dollar (USD) on its back foot, as recent US inflation figures triggered a significant repricing of near-term rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The EUR/USD pair jumped to the upper range of the 1.1400s and is testing the top of the monthly horizontal channel in the 1.1485 area.
Data released on Wednesday revealed that US Producer Price Index (PPI) figures contracted against expectations in June, confirming the deflationary trends highlighted by the soft Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released the previous day. These releases have prompted investors to practically discard a Fed hike in July and dial down hopes of one in September. The US Dollar has dropped against its main rivals, in consequence.
In Europe, Industrial Production figures disappointed on Wednesday, showing an unexpected contraction in June, although European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers have reiterated calls for monetary tightening, which contributed to the Euro’s bid tone.
Technical Analysis: Above 1.1485, the next target is the 1.1620 area
EUR/USD trades at 1.1469, showing a bullish near-term tone after rallying about 0.85% over the last three days. Momentum is constructive, with the four-hour Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around 63 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in positive territory, which together hint that buyers retain control.
Initial resistance emerges in an area between the mentioned range top, near 1.1485, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June sell-off, in the 1.1500 area. A confirmation above here would expose the June 16 and 17 highs, near 1.1620,
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the July 14 low at 1.1378 ahead of the year-to-date low, at 1.1324. Further down, bears might be attracted by the late-May 2025 low, at 1.1210.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.07% | 0.04% | -0.08% | 0.03% | 0.04% | -0.11% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.07% | 0.11% | -0.02% | 0.11% | 0.19% | -0.03% | 0.13% | |
| GBP | -0.04% | -0.11% | -0.13% | 0.00% | 0.07% | -0.13% | 0.03% | |
| JPY | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.09% | 0.20% | -0.02% | 0.14% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.11% | -0.00% | -0.09% | 0.10% | -0.12% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | -0.04% | -0.19% | -0.07% | -0.20% | -0.10% | -0.19% | -0.06% | |
| NZD | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.12% | 0.19% | 0.15% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | -0.13% | -0.03% | -0.14% | -0.04% | 0.06% | -0.15% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
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