British Pound gains traction above 1.3400 as markets bet on BoE rate hikes

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The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.3430 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The British Pound (GBP) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on the UK government leadership transition and growing expectations of further Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hikes.

GBP/USD gains ground to near 1.3430 in Friday’s Asian session.
Andy Burnham is set to become the next UK Prime Minister on July 20.
Iranian officials have reported multiple explosions in the country’s south, including near the Bushehr nuclear facility.

Andy Burnham’s path to becoming the next UK prime minister looks certain after a vast majority of Labour MPs formally nominated him to be the next party leader. Bloomberg reported on Thursday that 322 of 403 Labour members of Parliament voted for Burnham at the end of the first day of the party’s leadership contest to replace Keir Starmer. Burnham is expected to formally become Prime Minister on July 20.

Traders increased bets on BoE interest rate hikes amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Markets are now fully pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) BoE rate hike by year-end, most likely in December, according to Reuters.

Renewed tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the Greenback and cap the upside for the major pair. US forces struck several more locations in coastal Iran on Thursday, according to Iranian state media, though the US did not confirm carrying out the attacks. Iranian officials and state media have reported multiple explosions in the country’s south, including near the Bushehr nuclear facility.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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