• AUD/USD gains strong positive traction on the upbeat Aussie jobs data and a weaker USD.
• Escalating US-Iran tensions and Fed hike bets limit USD losses, which might cap spot prices.
• The technical setup favors bulls and backs the case for an extension of the appreciating move.

The AUD/USD pair catches fresh bids during the Asian session on Thursday following the release of the upbeat Australian jobs report, which lifted bets for another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Furthermore, a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness lifts spot prices to the 0.7020 region in the last hour, back closer to an over one-month high set on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, escalating US-Iran tensions and rising supply disruption concerns lift crude oil prices to a fresh high since June 11, fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This could help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven Greenback and hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets on the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices retain a modest bullish near-term bias above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from 0.7200 (late May high) and the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 41-hour chart. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.45 validates the constructive outlook without signaling overbought conditions.

However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram flattens just below the zero line, hinting that upside momentum is positive but not aggressive. Hence, any subsequent move up is likely to confront initial resistance at the 50.0% level at 0.7033. Furthermore, the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 0.7072 should act as the next hurdle in the current recovery sequence.

Further up, the 78.6% level at 0.7129 and the cycle high region at 0.7201 mark stronger barriers. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at 0.6993, ahead of the 100-period EMA at 0.6976. A deeper pullback would expose the 23.6% retracement at 0.6944, with the broader bullish structure only threatened on a slide toward the anchor low near 0.6865.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart