油价：市场预期与数据出现分歧 – 德国商业银行

油价：市场预期与数据出现分歧 – 德国商业银行

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德国商业银行（Commerzbank）商品研究团队负责人诺曼·利布克（Norman Liebke）及其同事指出，随着对美伊会谈及霍尔木兹海峡可能重新开放的乐观情绪升温，油价下跌。

德国商业银行（Commerzbank）商品研究团队，由诺曼·利布克（Norman Liebke）及其同事领导指出，随着对美伊谈判及霍尔木兹海峡可能重新开放的乐观情绪增强，油价已下跌。该银行强调即将发布的美国能源信息署（EIA）预测、可能的欧佩克+配额调整，并认为当前价格疲软反映的是对供应过剩的预期，而非已确认的供应过剩证据。

价格因预期变化而下跌

“鉴于持续存在的不确定性，油价可能会继续对该地区局势的新进展做出强烈反应。”

“在框架协议达成后，产量可能在6月已趋于稳定，因此预计EIA将略微上调其对下半年石油供应的预测。”

“即使大幅增加配额仍不太可能，欧佩克+也可能至少部分屈服于压力。”

“因此，价格走势与现有数据并不一致。”

“油价下跌更可能是由于预期变化，而非实际供应过剩。”

（本文借助人工智能工具撰写，并由编辑审核。）

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