印度:天气驱动的通胀风险 - 渣打银行
渣打银行(Standard Chartered Bank)经济学家 Saurav Anand 指出,随着季风降雨不足和持续的厄尔尼诺现象威胁粮食产量,印度面临的通胀风险正在上升。报告指出,播种面积下降且水库水位偏低,其中豆类、蔬菜、糖和油籽受影响最大。

渣打银行(Standard Chartered Bank)经济学家 Saurav Anand 指出,由于季风降雨不足以及持续的厄尔尼诺现象威胁粮食产出,印度面临不断上升的通胀风险。报告指出,播种面积下降且水库水位偏低,其中豆类、蔬菜、糖和油籽受影响最为明显。作者认为,FY27 CPI 通胀存在上行风险,如果食品价格飙升,回购利率也可能上调。

季风缺口威胁食品价格

"随着厄尔尼诺条件持续存在,以及 8 月中旬后天气转干的可能性较大,到季风季结束时出现大幅降雨缺口,并进而波及当前夏季作物和即将到来的冬季作物的风险仍然很高。"

"两位数的降雨缺口将显著提高通胀上行风险。"

"CPI 篮子中食品权重较低、灌溉覆盖率更好以及潜在的政策干预,可能会部分限制通胀影响。"

"尽管灌溉覆盖率更好且可能出台政策干预,但大规模季风缺口/厄尔尼诺对作物产量和价格的影响不太可能被完全抵消。"

(本文由人工智能工具协助创建,并由编辑审阅。了解更多。

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