匈牙利福林:随着匈牙利国家银行降息临近而落后——法国兴业银行
法国兴业银行将匈牙利福林视为 7 月份中东欧(CEE)地区表现最差的货币,EUR/HUF 重新升至 363 上方,因市场预期匈牙利央行 Magyar Nemzeti Bank(MNB)将再次降息 25 个基点至 5.75%。

法国兴业银行将匈牙利福林视为 7 月份中东欧(CEE)地区的主要落后货币,随着市场预期匈牙利央行 Magyar Nemzeti Bank(MNB)将再次降息 25bp 至 5.75%,EUR/HUF 重新升至 363 上方。匈牙利、捷克和波兰之间不同的利率路径正在削弱福林的套息吸引力,而更高的能源价格也加大了压力。

随着套息优势减弱,福林承压

"本月 HUF 一直是 CEEMEA 地区表现最差的货币(相对于 EUR 的总回报率为 -1.8%),周五重新回到 363/EUR 上方可能预示着进一步抛售,因为 MNB 正准备在本周连续第二次会议下调利率。"

"更高的能源价格并未帮助福林,但真正导致福林落后的还是货币政策的分化。"

"与匈牙利较低的利率相比,货币市场正在消化未来六个月捷克和波兰更高/稳定的利率路径。"

"市场普遍预期 MNB 明天将降息 25bp 至 5.75%,这将削弱该货币的套息吸引力。"

(本文由人工智能工具协助创建,并经过编辑审核。 了解更多。)

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