欧洲央行:油价风险支持 9 月加息 – 德国商业银行
德国商业银行(Commerzbank)利率团队预计,油价上涨和疲弱的增长信号将影响周四的欧洲央行(ECB)会议。7 月加息实际上已被排除在外,而市场已完全消化 9 月再度上调 25 个基点的预期。

德国商业银行利率团队预计,油价走高和疲弱的增长信号将主导周四的欧洲央行(ECB)会议。7 月加息实际上已被排除,而市场已完全消化 9 月再次上调 25 个基点的可能性。预计拉加德将强调通胀风险,但不会提前承诺,因为周五公布的欧元区初值 PMI 可能显示复苏仍然脆弱。

9 月加息可见,但不会提前承诺

"欧洲央行将是本周四的焦点,随后是下周的美联储决议。"

"本月可以有把握地排除加息。"

"不过,反弹的油价使得欧洲央行 9 月再次加息仍在预期之中,市场也已完全消化这一预期(+24bp)。"

"尽管拉加德可能会就通胀风险采取坚定措辞,但鉴于增长面临的逆风不断上升、局势仍在变化,她不太可能提前承诺 9 月加息。"

"本周的数据可能会表明,经济复苏仍然遥远。"

(本文由人工智能工具协助生成,并经编辑审核。了解更多。

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