欧元:能源和利差决定短期路径 – 荷兰国际集团
荷兰国际集团(ING)的 Chris Turner 指出,布伦特原油价格高于 90 美元时,欧元/美元通常可能会低于 1.14,但能源与短期欧元掉期利率之间更紧密的相关性正在提供支撑。

ING 的 Chris Turner 指出,布伦特原油高于 90 美元时,EUR/USD 通常会低于 1.14,但能源与欧元短期限掉期利率之间更紧密的相关性正在提供支撑。ING 仍倾向于 EUR/USD 回落至 1.14 下方,预计本周将触及 1.1380,同时警示欧洲央行意外加息的风险。EUR/NOK 也预计将下探至 10.95。

高企的能源价格与欧洲央行风险相互碰撞

"随着布伦特原油重新升至 90 美元/桶上方,我们原本预计 EUR/USD 会低于 1.14。不过,真正提供欧元支撑的,或许是能源价格与欧元短期限掉期利率之间更紧密的相关性。"

"在这里,与 3 月一样,更高的能源价格已推动 EUR/USD 两年期掉期利差大幅收窄。欧元两年期掉期利率目前已升至今年新高,而上周的美国通胀数据则使短期限美国利率脱离高位。"

"鉴于当前高企的能源价格,我们确实倾向于 EUR/USD 回落至 1.14 下方,但我们也意识到本周四欧洲央行意外加息的风险。"

"宏观团队认为,欧洲央行可能会借助更高的能源价格,将第二次加息提前至 9 月之前。这更像是风险情景,而非基准预期;相反,我们怀疑能源价格的上涨可能会在本周将 EUR/USD 推回至 1.1380。"

"其他方面,收益率较高、能源出口型的挪威克朗在上周小幅波动后重新获得买盘。EUR/NOK 的跌势可能延伸至 10.95 区域。"

(本文由人工智能工具协助创建,并经编辑审核。 了解更多。)

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