纽元:油价拖累限制汇率支撑 – 华侨银行
Christopher Wong 指出,新西兰元(NZD)在新西兰央行(RBNZ)鹰派加息后走强,但油价上涨限制了涨幅。

Christopher Wong 指出,新西兰元(NZD)在新西兰储备银行(RBNZ)鹰派加息后走强,但较高的油价限制了涨幅。随着 RBNZ 开始紧缩周期,且预计 2026 年下半年经济将反弹,Wong 认为澳元/纽元(AUD/NZD)接近峰值,尽管持续下跌需要更强劲的新西兰经济增长和更有利的能源环境支持。

鹰派纽储行遇上能源逆风

“新西兰元在纽储行鹰派加息后走强,但因油价上涨带来的贸易条件逆风限制了涨幅。纽储行将官方现金利率上调 25 个基点至 2.50%,这是自 2023 年 5 月以来的首次加息。前瞻指引鹰派但依赖数据,央行指出可能需要进一步加息以将通胀率恢复至目标水平。”

“国内数据显示,随着高企的燃料成本拖累减弱以及企业和消费者信心恢复,预计 2026 年下半年 GDP 增长将反弹。随着经济增长预期改善,政策利率维持在远低于中性水平已不再合理。话虽如此,霍尔木兹海峡能源流动的任何中断都可能进一步推高能源价格,破坏经济复苏。”

“随着纽储行开启紧缩周期,而澳洲联储(RBA)似乎接近加息周期尾声,相对利率动态显示澳元/纽元正接近峰值。”

“然而,澳元/纽元的持续下跌可能需要更明确的新西兰经济增长动能增强的证据以及更有利的能源环境,这对作为能源进口货币的新西兰元尤为支持。”

(本文由人工智能工具协助生成,并由编辑审核。 了解更多。

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