United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang sees USD/JPY holding a firmer tone, with intraday action likely confined to a higher 162.30–162.70 range. Over the next few weeks, a broader consolidation between 161.30 and 163.00 is expected. On a 1–3 month view, the pair could still extend its advance as long as it stays above the 21-day EMA near 161.00.

Higher trading band as advance extends

"24-HOUR VIEW: While we indicated yesterday that “the bias for USD is tilted to the upside,” we pointed out that “any advance is expected to face firm resistance at 162.75.” We noted that “support is at 162.35, followed by 162.20.” Our expectation did not materialise, as USD traded between 162.23 and 162.59, closing little changed at 162.49 (+0.06%). While the price movements appear to be part of a range-trading phase, the firmer underlying tone suggests USD is likely to trade in a higher range of 162.30/162.70 today."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: The following excerpt from our update last Friday (17 Jul, spot at 162.35) remains valid: “We have held the same view since last Tuesday (07 Jul, spot at 162.10), when we indicated that “the outlook for USD is mixed,” and it could “trade between the two major levels of 160.60 and 163.00.” While we are not able to derive much from the price action since then, a narrower 161.30/163.00 range is likely sufficient to contain USD for now.”."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)