Standard Chartered economists Carol Liao and Shuang Ding argue that China’s July Politburo meeting will prioritise implementation of existing fiscal plans over new stimulus. They expect fiscal execution to accelerate in H2 after a marked slowdown following front-loaded Q1 spending. Infrastructure investment is likely to rebound, with spending increasingly directed toward AI-related and green-transition projects to stabilise growth.

Politburo seen prioritising fiscal delivery

"We expect the meeting to focus on accelerating fiscal execution in H2, while keeping a contingency plan Funding for goods trade-in programme is evenly paced; infrastructure spending likely to rebound in H2 Spending to increasingly focus on infrastructure related to AI and the green transition."

"As a result, the market seems to be more focused on whether the July Politburo meeting will deliver additional stimulus."

"We expect the July Politburo meeting to focus on accelerating fiscal execution in H2 rather than expand the policy scope, with monetary policy playing a supplementary role."

"We believe this led to the sharp infrastructure investment contraction in Q2, and appears to be an intentional fine-tuning of the spending pace after strong Q1 growth."

"We think infrastructure spending will continue to play a critical role in stabilising growth near-term, focusing on green transition, high-tech and social/livelihood projects."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)