Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke highlights that China’s July trade data will be key for base metals, especially Aluminium. Chinese Aluminium output in H1 exceeded the official cap, suggesting production may ease later this year. Combined with higher energy costs and low LME stocks, the bank expects Aluminium prices to trend higher over coming months.

Chinese output and stocks underpin outlook

"In addition, the data should provide indications of developments in aluminium and copper production in China."

"In the first half of the year, Chinese aluminium production, with annualized output of just under 46.4 million tons, was significantly above the government-imposed cap of 45 million tons, which is why production could be somewhat lower in the second half of the year."

"Alongside the renewed increase in energy prices and the low LME inventory levels, this supports the view that aluminium prices are likely to trend higher over the coming months."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)