US PCE inflation data confirm steady disinflation

ARTIKEL POPULER

The United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index pointed to a further moderation in inflation in June. The headline index fell by 0.1% MoM after a revised 0.5% increase in May, while the annual rate eased to 3.7% from 4.1%, in line with market expectations.

The Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred measure of underlying inflation, rose by 0.1% MoM after increasing 0.3% in May. On an annual basis, core inflation eased to 3.3% from 3.4% previously, also matching analysts' estimates, but remaining well above the central bank's 2% target.

Overall, the data confirms that the disinflation process in the United States continues without any major surprises for financial markets, leaving expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path largely unchanged.

Market reaction

Following the release, the US Dollar (USD) showed no immediate reaction. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was last seen down around 0.17% on the day, trading near 100.65.

Economic Indicator

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The PCE Price Index is also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The core reading excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures." Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa.

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