DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee notes the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped from 101.28 to 101 late in the US session, even as the US Treasury 2Y yield rose and crude Oil stayed supported by Middle East tensions. Futures pricing now shows September Fed hike odds above 50%, but FOMC Minutes suggest a divided committee and limited forward guidance from Chair Kevin Warsh.

Middle East stress and Fed repricing

"Although the futures market returned the odds of a September Fed hike above 50%, the FOMC Minutes did not convey the same urgency for one by the divided Fed participants."

"The DXY Index fell late in the US session from 101.28 to 101, decoupling from the higher US Treasury 2Y yield, despite its strong correlation with crude oil prices after President Donald Trump declared that the interim ceasefire agreement with Iran was over."

"However, Trump clarified that the US blockade applied strictly to Iranian ports, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that safe and secure oil should trade at a premium. Volatile headline risks remain."

"Markets remain mindful that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will unlikely provide forward guidance at his congressional hearings amid an expected softer US CPI print next week."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)